The Afghan Vortex
By Elie Krakowski
References:
[1] Jason Goodwin, The Playing Fields of Asia, book review of
Tournament of Shadows: The Great Game and the Race for Empire in
Central Asia, by Karl Meyer and Shareen Blair Brysac
(Washington: Cornelia and Michael Bessie/Counterpoint, 1999) in
The New York Times Book Review, January 9, 2000.
[2] Stephen J. Blank, Why Russian Policy is Failing in Asia
(Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College,
1997). The author writes about the Yeltsin administration s
chaotic policies and speaks of the de-insitutionalization of
the state. He discusses various structural weaknesses of the
state and writes that these weaknesses not only undermine the
center s ability to govern, formulate, and implement policy,
they also erode the foundations of control over regional
governments (pp.1-2).
[3] Of the various interested entities, China continues to
remain more on the sidelines, giving its preferential
relationship with Pakistan continued priority over the
Afghanistan issue.
[4] For an excellent discussion of this American failure to pay
attention, see Leon Poullada, The Road to Crisis, 1919-1980,
in Rosanne Klass, ed., Afghanistan: The Great Game Revisited
(New York: Freedom House, 1987), pp. 37-70.
[5] Ibid., p. 42.
[6] Army General Ivan Pavlovsky (as reported in Literaturnaya
Gazeta, September 20, 1989) who had gone on an assessment tour
of Afghanistan in August 1979, is cited as having said there
was no need to send troops to Afghanistan. As cited in Elie D.
Krakowski, Red Star Over Afghanistan, Global Affairs, vol.5
no.2 (Spring 1990), p.113. General Pavlovsky s assessment is
also cited in Cynthia Roberts, Glasnost in Soviet Foreign
Policy: Setting the Record Straight? Radio Liberty, Report on
the USSR, vol. I, no. 50, December 15, 1989. Much of the
discussion on the Soviet-Afghan war here is drawn from the
author s Red Star Over Afghanistan.
[7] The initial troop strength of 85,000 was ultimately raised
to some 120,000.
[8] See on this Anthony H. Cordesman and Abraham R. Wagner, The
Lessons of Modern War, Volume III: The Afghan and Falklands
Conflicts (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1990), p. 26. See also
General (Ret.) Mohammad Yahya Nawroz, Army of Afghanistan, and
LTC (Ret.) Lester W. Grau, U.S. Army, The Soviet War in
Afghanistan: History and Harbinger of Future War? (Fort
Leavenworth, Kansas: U.S. Army Foreign Military Studies Office,
1996).
[9] As Bernard Malhuret (of the French Medecins Sans Frontieres)
observed in a Foreign Affairs article Report from Afghanistan,
(Winter 1983/84) the Soviets were no doubt aware that a
guerrilla is to the population as a fish is to water (Mao Tse
Tung s expression).
[10] Not that there were no brutal acts of war, but the
techniques used systematically in the south were employed here
mostly only in retaliation for Resistance attacks.
[11] For a more detailed discussion of these arguments, see Elie
D. Krakowski, Afghanistan: The Strategy of Dismemberment, The
National Interest, Number 7 (Spring 1987), and the fuller
treatment of that subject in the author s Afghanistan and
Soviet Global Interests, in Klass ed., The Great Game
Revisited, pp.161-186.
[12] Elie D. Krakowski, US Policy on Afghanistan, in Richard
H. Shultz, Jr., Uri Ra anan, Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr., William
Olson, Igor Lukes, eds., Guerrilla Warfare & Counterinsurgency:
US-Soviet Policy in the Third World, (Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath
and Company, 1989).
[13] The New York Times, November 29, 1987.
[14] Ibid.
[15] John F. Burns, Afghans: Now They Blame America, The New
York Times Magazine, February 4, 1990.
[16] Samina Ahmad, The Crisis of State Legitimacy, in Lt.Gen.
(Ret.) Nishat Ahmad, ed., Afghanistan: Past, Present, & Future
(Islamabad, Pakistan: Institute of Regional Studies, 1997) pp.
11-75.
[17] Ibid., p.54.
[18] Ibid., p.55.
[19] Amin Saikal, The Rabbani Government, 1992-1996, in
William Maley, ed., Fundamentalism Reborn? Afghanistan and the
Taliban (New York: New York University Press, 1998), p.33. On
the rift between Massoud and Gulbuddin, see Peter Marsden, The
Taliban: War, Religion and the New Order in Afghanistan
(Karachi, Pakistan: Oxford University Press, 1998), p.40.
[20] Former Pakistani Army Chief of Staff General Mirza Aslam
Beg, as cited by Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Kamal Matinudddin , The
Taliban Phenomenon in Afghanistan: Genesis, Prospects, and
Impact on the Region, in K.M. Asaf and Abul Barakat, eds.
Central Asia: Internal and External Dynamics (Islamabad,
Pakistan: Institute of Regional Studies, 1997), p.82.
[21] On the early appearances of small groups of fighters
already under the name of Taliban, and on already existing
Pakistani awareness and training of these and other Mujahedeen,
see Anthony Davis, How the Taliban became a Military Force, in
Maley, Fundamentalism Reborn, p.45.
[22] Stephanie Allix, Instabilite persistente en Asie Centrale:
De la resistance a la prise de Kaboul, l histoire secrete des
talibans, Le Monde Diplomatique, January 1997, pp.4-5.
[23] Ahmed Rashid, Pakistan and the Taliban, in Maley,
Fundamentalism Reborn, p.85.
[24] Ibid.
[25] Ahmed Rashid, The Taliban: Exporting Extremism, Foreign
Affairs, (November /December 1999) p.22.
[26] Olivier Roy, Un fundamentalisme sunnite en panne de projet
politique, Le Monde Diplomatique, October 1998, pp. 8-9.
[27] Allix, Instabilite persistente en Asie Centrale, p.5.
[28] Ibid.
[29] Rashid, Pakistan and the Taliban, p. 87.
[30] Rashid, The Taliban: Exporting Extremism, p.27.
[31] Barbara Crossette, As Hijacking Drama Plays Out, Views on
Taliban Shift, The New York Times, December 30, 1999.
[32] Peter Tomsen, A Chance for Peace in Afghanistan, Foreign
Affairs, (January/February 2000), p.179.
[33] See discussion above on period of 1979-1989.
[34] The author encountered this sort of reaction from a number
of Afghans from various tribal groupings and political
persuasions during an extensive fact-finding mission in the
summer of 1998.
[35] John F. Burns of The New York Times, as cited in
Matinuddin, The Taliban Phenomenon, p.88.
[36] Roshan Zamir, Deoband Opposes some of Taliban Beliefs,
The Nation, Pakistan, March 11, 1998.
[37] Tomsen, A Chance for Peace, p.180.
[38] Allix, Instabilite persistente, p.5.
[39] The U.S. State Department latest annual report Patterns of
Global Terrorism 1998 (April 1999), p.9, describes the situation
as follows: Islamic extremists from around the world
including large numbers of Egyptians, Algerians, Palestinians,
and Saudis in 1998 continued to use Afghanistan as a training
ground and a base of operations for their worldwide terrorist
activities. The Taliban facilitated the operation of training
and indoctrination facilities for non-Afghans and provided
logistical support and sometimes passports to members of various
terrorist organizations. Throughout 1998 the Taliban continued
to host Osama Bin Ladin, who was indicted in November for the
bombings in August of two U.S. Embassies in East Africa.
[40] Ahmed Rashid, Les talibans au coeur de la destabilisation
regionale, [http://monde-
diplomatique.fr/1999/11/RASHID/12663.html], November 1999.
[41] Ibid.
[42] Dawn, Pakistan, February 2, 2000.
[43] Kabul, Islamabad Reaffirm Opposition to Terrorism: Taliban
Stick to Stand on Bin Laden,
[http://www.dawn.com/fixed/arch/arch.html].
[44] Ahmed Rashid, The Talibanisation of Pakistan, Daily
Telegraph, December 28, 1998.
[45] Ahmed Rashid, Raise the Crescent, in Far Eastern Economic
Review, December 3, 1998.
[46] Rashid, The Talibanisation of Pakistan.
[47] Ahmed Rashid, Les talibans au coeur de la destabilisation
regionale, [http://monde-
diplomatique.fr/1999/11/RASHID/12663.html], November 1999.
[48] Rashid, Raise the Crescent.
[49] Ibid.
[50] Jane Perlez, U.S. Says Pakistan Backed Hijackers of Indian
Jetliner, The New York Times, January 25, 2000.
[51] Francoise Chipaux, Une offensive generale des talibans
contre l opposition afghane se dessinerait: Le soutien
pakistanais aux maitres de Kaboul s est renforce, Le Monde,
July 28, 1999.
[52] Rashid, The Talibanisation of Pakistan.
[53] Rashid, Raise the Crescent.
[54] Perlez, U.S. Says Pakistan Backed Hijackers.
[55] Rashid, Raise the Crescent.
[56] Barbara Crossette, Afghan Heroin Feeds Addiction in
Region, U.N. Report Declares, The New York Times, March 1,
2000. The report notes that Afghanistan is also becoming a
major manufacturer of heroin, which is contributing to a rise in
addiction throughout the region. Another report specifies the
opium production for 1999 as 5,070 tons, or about 75 percent of
the global yield (Barry Bearak, Distress in the Opium
Bazaar: Can t Make a Profit , The New York Times, March 3,
2000).